Intel: Yep, It is Coming, and by 2050
August 22nd, 2008 by Richard Leis, Jr.The technology blogs and news sites are buzzing (Newspond's Buoyancy Rating for this story is currently +131.7 and has risen 13% in the past hour) today about statements made by Intel CTO Justin Rattner at the Intel Developer Forum, including:
"The industry has taken much greater strides than anyone ever imagined 40 years ago," Rattner said. "There is speculation that we may be approaching an inflection point where the rate of technology advancements is accelerating at an exponential rate, and machines could even overtake humans in their ability to reason, in the not so distant future."
This is copied and pasted directly from an Intel news release titled "Intel CTO Says Gap between Humans, Machines will Close by 2050". The release goes on to describe a few of the research projects Intel is undertaking, including human-machine interfaces. While a list of current research projects is not all that unusual in company releases, for such a well-known corporation to precede their list with a definition and acknowledgment of the Singularity most certainly is. That the definition is provided by Rattner, and by extension Intel, so nonchalantly and with no critique is frankly a little frightening. "Yep," they seem to be saying, "it is coming."
Rattner's comments are not merely passing quotes picked up by various news outlets, but part of a formal news release by the speaker's employer. Intel is backing his comments and even highlights them in the headline. Intel is announcing to the world that the Singularity is near.
I missed the obvious mistake in Rattner's statement until another h+ club member pointed it out: exponentials do not have inflection points. However, that this mistake is included in Rattner's statement suggests something about the larger impact of his message. We WANT there to be an inflection point, as some sort of guide, milestone, handhold, starting point on this shocking theory. He makes the same mistake many singularitarians make because the idea is grander than the movement. We are left fumbling with human words to try to describe this concept called the Singularity.
I do not want to suggest that Intel's news release is in any way "proof" that a Singularity will occur. According to some, the word "Singularity" has lost all meaning. I do think it is significant that a version of this idea has taken hold at one of the most closely followed industry drivers, it is informing their current research activities, and they are acknowledging it! If Intel is exploring within a framework that includes the idea of the Singularity, then it is time we sit up and pay attention.